Public Forum

Cliff

HaasBudget Questions Remain

To the editor:

-This fall we have had the pleasure of listening to two outstanding performances by the Greenville City Schools orchestras. In October, the Elementary School Orchestras, under the direction of Mrs. Jo Ann Moore, presented a lively and entertaining program of American folk and country music and just a few weeks later the Middle School Orchestra, the Aycock Orchestra and the Rose High School Symphony all under the directin of Mr. Paul Emerson gave an equally impressive performance, playing a number of demanding classical pieces with great sKill and expressiveness. The people of this community can take great pride in the accomplishments of these talented young musicians, inn the leadership provided by Mrs. Moore and Mr. Emerson, and in^the city schools commitment to excellence in the arts.

Jim and Paula Kirkland ' Greenville

WASHINGTON (AP) - President Reagan and his Republican allies on Capitol Hill are moving closer to embracing the idea of a freeze on federal spending, but the problem is coming up with a list of programs that would have to be left out in the cold under such a plan.

Reagan and a dozen senior aides will be back at work Monday and Tuesday on a line-by-line examination of government programs. Reagan is scheduled to discuss the budget with his ('abinet on Wed

nesday.

According to sources who spoke on condition they not be quoted by name, the president and his advisers are working slowly to come up with a plan that will hold total spending for governmenTt programs in 1986 at its current level of about $830 billion and achieve savings of about $45 billion.

But under such a "freeze, some programs, like defense and Social Security, would continue to rise, but others wouid be pared or even scrapped entirely to keep total spending at the current level. Interest on the national debt, expected to run at about $130 billion in 1985, would not be restricted.

"Its being talked about in a generic sense and nobodys figured out yet that a freeze, aint a freeze, aint a freeze, said one source. So its something that is perfectly acceptable to talk about right now.

The process were going through now ... will be to see if there is some way you can pull some numbers out of there and call it a freeze, the source said. ^___

As part of the |MDce^, White House budget director David A. Stockman met with House Re-

publican leaders on Friday to lead them through a nearly three-hour session similar to those Reagan has participated in with his top aides.

"What we were shown was a list that lays out the amount thats being spent on each of the programs that are in the budget, said Rep. Dick Cheney, R-Wyo. What Dave (Stockman) is ... doing, in part, is frying to educate those people who ultimately are going to have to make the decisions.

Cheney said Stockman is "forcing

Rowland Evans and Robert Novak

Wright Sets The Stage

WASHINGTON - When House Majoritv Leader Jim Wright grabbed the telephone after the Thanksgiving weekend to quiet grumbling from rebellious Democratic congressmen about Speaker Thomas P. 0 Neill, he began a long campaign for his own election as speaker two years hence.

Todays turbulent mood among House Democrats endangers automatic succession from party floor leader to speaker that^has prevailed for nearly a century. As a moderate liberal and O'NeH's longtime second-in-command. Wright faces trouble from the two quite separate groups most critical of O'Neill: the rising force ot younger-generation libi*rals and the dwindling remnant of Southern Boll Weevil conservatives.

So restive is the Hou.se Democratic majority that if-the Republicans had won as few as eight additional seats on Nov. 6. O.N'eill might he spending his last two years in (ongress as a back-bencher. Limiting the loss to only 17 Democratic seats gives O'Neill the dignity of leaving the speakership under his own pdwer. as scheduled. But the delayed reaction could tall on Wright in 1986.

Thus, more than the political persona of one man is at stake. While many Democratic congressmen long have winced at the ward-heeler image of Tip O'Neill representing their party nationally, they also have chafed under Democratic leadership tactics that are both heavy-handed in disciplining the' ranks and maladroit in challenging President Reagan.

Inadequacies of the ONeill-Wright leadership were examined in private before the ejection by the new breed of House liberals led by

Californias Rep. Tony Coelho, 42. chairman of the congressional campaign committee,- and Missouris Rep. Richard Gephardt^ 43. prospective chairman of the House Democratic Caucus If the Republicans picked up 30 or even 25 seats in the election, it was agreed that a new speaker would be necessary.

In that event. O.N'eill would have been asked to step aside in the interest of the party. If he refused, he would have been challenged in the Caucus by Dick Gephardt, the new breeds choice for speaker. He is their presumptive candidate against Wright in 1986 (though Ways and Means Committee Chairman Dan Rostenkowski and Budget Committee Chairman James Jones are al.so possible challengers i.

Liberals have grumbled at Wrights occasional support for Reagan programs, particularly his courageous vote opposing his partys position again.st continuing aid to El Salvador. But he can scarcely count on Boll Weevil backing for speaker

Indeed, the tone of secret pre-election meetings of Boll Weevils was as much anti-Wright as anti-O.Neill. The Southerners grumbled about the majority leaders hard-nosed treatment of two fellow Texans who co-sponsored the Reagan economic program Rep. Phil Gramm bolted to the Republicans after Wright kicked him off the Budget Committee. Wright broke precedent by campaigning against Rep. Kent Hance in the Senate Democratic primary even after Hance helped Democratic candidates nationw ide in 1982.

Like the Coelho-Gephardt new breed, the Boll Weevils eyed a Republican gain of around 30 House seats as the trigger in their case to join with Republicans and elect a conservative

Democrat for speaker. When that number went glimmering, the Republicans lost interest and the affair became an intramural Democratic con

cern.

The post-election Boll Weevil call for Wright to challenge ONeill in the Demwratic Caucus was mainly intended to put the majority leader on the spot; either abandon or stand with Tip. When Wright stood. Rep. Charles Stenholm of Texas emerged as the candidate to give Boll Weevils a chance to cast an anti-O.Neill Caucus vote for public consumption back home. Even so. some are considering a "present vote when the full House elects its speaker in January.

ONeill, who calls himself a lame duck, has asked colleagues to let him go out in dignity. He is genuinely well-liked, particularlly by older members, and there is concern that his robust appearance belies failing health.

Nevenheless. the moment of uncertainty is being used to bombard the speaker w 31) demands from a.l quarters: for election -stead of appointment qf the Democratic whip, for strategic considerations in scheduling legislation, for naming a Boll Weevil as a second deputy whip and Budget Committee members.

In that climate, Jim Wright picked up the telephone Monday to ask Boll Weevils to drop their efforts against ONeill, and agreed with them that the party must move toward the center. The sentiment is not all that foreign from what members of the Coelho-Gephardt group believe. The question is whether either they or the Boll Weevils want Wright to do the moving. In prospect are two turbulent years breaking a decade of serenijy among House Democrats.

Maxwell Glen and Cody Shearerteens

WASHINGTON - One of the bi^est mistakes American society makes is not entrusting teen-agers with more responsibility. Short of flipping hamburgers, selling popcorn in theaters or carting groceries to customers cars, teens are given few challenges. With the exception of saving money from odd jobs, excelling on a school team or receiving high grades in school, most teens have few opportunities to shine.

Its not surprising, then, to cruise any main street in America and see the results of this disaffected body on a weekday or weekend evening. There they are, hundreds of therq. hanging out on car bumpers in parking lots, looking bored or intoxicated. with little or no purpose in their lives. Sure, cruising in cars and hanging out have been American institutions for decades. But as the rest of the world well knows, idleness isnt the most constructive human condition.

A report released recently by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety suggests the potential costs of that idleness. In the first comprehensive study of its kind, the . industry group surviyed 50.000 high school students in seven states. The results could turn a driving teachers face ashen.

According to the report, nearly half of all licensed male students and a third of the licensed females said they had driven after drinking, even though most of them could not legally purchase alcohol. And 25 'percent of the male students said .they drink and drive frequently ; (once a week or more).

Meanwhile, 13 percent of the unlicensecj male teen-agers said they '-frequently (once a week or more)

Well as positive signals go, I'd say its a little bit iffy____

drive alone. And nearly half of the male students licensed for two years or more said they had been in at least one crash; half also reported one or more, tickets for moving violations.

In fact, more than half of the teen-agers in this survey said they owned a car. Among non-owners, 71 percent said they could drive the family car whenever they wished. Similar federal figures suggest that the percentage of 16- and 17-year-old drivers who have motor vehicle permits has increased from 46 percent in 1963 to almost 60 percent today.

Noting the potential for self-destruction here, groups such as Mothers Against Drunk Driving iMADD) have moved forcefully in recent years in lobbying state legislatures to increase the minimum alcohol purchasing age to 21. Statistically, the effort ha paid off; the number of teen-agers killed in accidents has deoreased from 9.500in 1975 to 7,260 in 1983.

Yet federal statistics also suggest that a 16-year-old driver is twice as likely to be killed in a car accident as an 18-year-old and 10 times as likely as a 30-year-oId. "Its an exponentially* increasing curve, according to Leon Robertson, a professor at the Institute for Social Policy Studies at Yale University.

That is a compelling argument for a minimum national licensing age of 18. If teen-agers cant bet in a state lottery, or vote, or donate their organs for transplant until theyre 18, need driving privileges be im-mume to tougher requirements?

to do is kill the mosquitoes. If you have people dying from motor vehicles, you keep them out of cars for as long as possible.

No doubt 16- and L yea.-olds would cry bloody murder if they heard a serious campaign was mder way to raise-the driving age But such was the case m raising *he minimum drinking age. too. but the furor died quickly.

Theres lots of room for action. New Jersey, which gives licenses at 17, is the only state without a 16-year-old minimum age requirement.

The alternative, of course, might be driving curfews for teen-agers; 12 states have them. In New York City, the witching hour - for 16-year-olds, that is-is 9 p.m.

"From the point of view of a public health official, the obvious thing is to reduce exposure. says Yales Robertson. "If you have people dying from malaria, the thing

us to look (at) just exactly how difficult it is, for example, to get $45' billion (in savings) in 1986 if you put this off limits and that off limits.

The problem with drafting a budget while seeking to cap spending is that there are so many automatic increases built into government programs it will take some deep cuts in certain programs to stay within the boundary of current spending.

Were quite well aware that when you put certain of these items off the ^ table and ... to get the kind of" savings you would like to achieve if it is W5 billion youre making tremendous cuts in some very ticklish programs, said House Republican Leader Robert H^chel ,of Illinois.

According to participants, tbe budget directors session witb House Rep iblicans on Friday included the Stockman lecture on deficits.

Documents Stockman used in his presentation to House members showed the deficit hitting $210 billion in 1985, which would surpass the record of $195.4 billion in 1983. It was $174.3 billion in 1984.

Without any changes in law, the deficit would be $206 billion in 1986. $225 billion in 1987 and $217 billion in 1988, according to the documents.

The documents said a group' of respected private analysts places the deficit even higher in 1986, at $226 billion. $271 billion in 1987 and $276 billion in 1988.

The administration's projections are based on assumptions that the economy, which h1is slowed^ markedly this fall, will pick up and grow annually at a solid 4 percent pace through 1988.

So far,' Reagan and his aides have been aiming at a tentative goal of cutting federal spending by $45 billion in 1986, $85 billion in 1987 and $110 billion in 1988.

Those measures would pare the deficit back to $160 billion or $165 billion in 1986. getting down to a bit more than $100 billion in 1988.

Participants said that after Stockman talked abodt the deficit projetions. the budget director went through a line-by-line discussion of how to accomplish the spending cut objectives of the so-called freeze.

George

Gallup

Poll

PRINCETON, N.J. The proportion of Americans claiming affiliation with the Republican Party just prior to President Reagan's landslide election victory reached a level not seen since the Eisenhower era of the 1950s. Concurrently, the proportion of the electorate expressing loyalty to thT^lemocratic Party was as low as it has been at any point since the end of World War II.

In four Gallup surveys conducted from early September until the week before Election Day, 35 percent of voters classified themselves as Republicans, 39 percent as Democrats and 26 percent as Independents

(jnly time can tell whether the current near-parity division of party allegiance signals a basic realignment of political loyalties, or reflects a temporary setback for the Democrats induced by Reagans stunning election vie tory. Nevertheless, the Democrats present 4 percentage-point advantage over the Republicans in party affiliation is the narrowest observed since 1946. when 40 percent of voters described themselves as Republicans and 39 percent as Democrats.

Gallup surveys during the last half-century have show n that political party allegiance tends to ebb and flow with the fortunes of the party contplkng the White House. Thus, Republican affiliation rose to 28 percent afthe time-of President Reagans election in 1980. After the onset of the recession, however, it declined steadily to the 23 percent level until mid-1983. when there was clear evidence of the recovery. The proportion of the electorate claiming Republican allegiance has been on a slow but steady upturn since then.

The same pattern was observed in President Reagan s approval ratings After the customary "honeymoon period of high job performance ratings. Reagan gradually trailed off during the 1982. His lowest rating to date occurred in late January 1983, when merely 35 percent of the public expressed approval of his performance in office. The presidents ratings imp||B^()rtly thereafter and have remained in the 55 ^rcent approval range^^^

As recently as the spring and summer of 1977, a far different voter align ment prevailed. Democrats were still basking in their return to the White House after an eight-year hiatus; Republicans were licking the wounds caused by Watergate and President Nixons disgrace and resignation.

In mid-1977, self-described Democrats outnumbered Republicans. 49 percent to 20 percent, a hugh 29-point chasm separating the two parties.

The Democratic figure then was the highest since the spring of 1965 and only 4 points below its high point of 53 percent, recorded in early 1964, shortly after President John Kennedys assassination. The figure for the Republicans was its lowest in modern times.

With the sole exception of blacks, the GOPs current 15 percentage point nationwide gain since 1977, from 20 percent affiliation to 35 percent, traces to every major demographic group.

The "gender gap notwithstanding, in the last seven years women have turned to the Republican Party to almost the same extent as men have; both sexes are now equally represented in the GOP ranks. Women continue to classify themselves as Democrats to a slightly greater degre than men do. while the latter are somewhat more likely to say they are politically independent.

Although most blue-collar workers both skilled and unskilled have remained true to their political roots, the proportion now calling themselves Republicans is more than double the proportion observed in 1977. The same holds true for Catholics (from 14 percent Republican in 1977 to 32 percent now) and Southerners (15 percent to 36 percent).Noel YanceyFlight

But whatever the course, by taking it public, officials would be doing young Americans a favor. Needlessly losing an additional 3.00 teen-agers annually doesnt make a lot of sense. Without the means to cruise their local strifk, many ot these young peoplennight be ready for something better to do.

When Wilbur and Orville Wright were preparing to make their historic flight on Dec. 17,1903, the folks at Kitty Hawk were not impressed.

Lillie Swindell could have added her name to the scant list of those who watched the four flights the day that launched the world into the space age. but she did not bother to look out her window

"They-#ways looked like children to me '- out there on the beach playing with kites. Mrs. Swindell recalled years later.

If Mrs. Swindell and her neighbors had realized that history was to be made that chilly, windy day. probably there would have been scores to witness those first flights. .Actually only four persons, in addition of Wilbur and Orville Wright, were there.

One of those who missed it was Alph^us Drinkwater. the telegrapher. He thought the Navys efforts to refloat a submarine that had gone pground a few miles up the beach were more important. So, instead of watching those first flights and flashing the news to the world. Drinkwater relayed - from his station up the beach - the message the Wrights sent their family in Dayton, Ohio.

Even sadder was the story of Ora L Jones, a reporter for the Asheville Citizen whose boss had given him $50 fo* expenses and told him to go to Kitty Hawk and cover the Wrights efforts to fly. Jones had written some articles ridiculing Professor Samuel T. Langley whose plane plunged into the Potomac River when he tried to fly, and his editor "wanted me to godown there and write some really funny stuff, in the same vein as my stories about Langleys Folly.

away. So. Jones resorted to watching their preparations from a distant sand dune with a telescope he had borrowed from the Coast Guard.

"The winds proved so cold during the day. the blowing sand cut so sharply, the mosquitoes and other insects were so bad at night, meals so terrible, and I really didnt believe the Wrights could ever fly. so I decided to go home. Jones said in an interview vears later.

"When I reached Goldsboro next afternoon I read in a Raleigh paper a short item about theWri^Hij'first successful fli'^ht. he ai^d.

"Ironically, that first flight tool^ place while I was sitting by a tin stove in my boarding house a mile from Kill Devil Hill, impatiently waiting for the horse and buggy to take me to Elizabeth Citv.

Frank B. Wood, a baltoist and auto racer, was \ho be

moaned in later years that he had not lingered at Kitty Hawk long enough to see the first flight. However he returned for some first flight anniversaries.

"I came down with Barney Oldfield, who became the famous racer, y know ... to find the Wright brothers. Wood recalled. He said the Wrights told them they wanted to* make a machine fly. "so we helped them fix the thing up.

However, he said the Wright brothers told him they did not want publicity and ordered him to go

We pushed the thing up the hill. It was on a little one-wheel truck that rode on a wooden track they had made. he related. "When we got to the top of the hill, we pushed it dow n the hill to beat the band. It took off when we got to the bottom. Wood said the plane flew 44 feet that time. 60 feet a second time and 166 feet the third before a gust of wind lipped it over, breaking the rudder.